Why 2016 will fail. A Non-MotU:C Rant.

2016 is still a dream far away. We must wait until 2015's SDCC to see what Mattel is going to do with the Theoretical 2016 line that is not MOTUC. (hence the title)

I mentioned Downsizing and a few sets of two packs as a choice. The problem with that is that the idea was basically MOTUC: Year 8 (reduced, but it was meant to fill in some gaps in MOTUC's roster.)

I also mentioned that we had to be open to the idea of Re-Do's of certain Key characters since the 2016 line is a BRAND NEW LINE THAT IS NOT MOTUC. Since it's a brand new line, then some older characters reappearing is a "necessary evil". Of course that notion has met some detractors who claim that "Neitlich lied and the line is doing way better than he told us."

Here's the thing: I don't believe that Neitlich was 100% Transparent with us and on the other hand; most of his statements never delivered actual numbers. The only "official info" we have came out of Neitlich's Keyboard and mouth.

Let's pretend that these guys are correct and Neitlich lied. The line is doing great because we got Grayskull, a Battle Ram, The minis and the Giants. How can a dying line get all that stuff?

The line is doing so fine that we saw a downsizing in slots. Remember when we had BOTH Quarterly Figures AND Quarterly Beasts?

How come 2013, 2014 AND 2015 only have Quarterly slots that have to be shared between Variants, Beasts and Multi-Packs if the line is doing so well? Before anyone says: What about the Mini-Subs?
Not going to reply with: Look at 2012, where we had Large Items: Star sisters, Procrustus, Griffin and Snakemen pack along with TP He-Man, SMAA, DB Skeletor, BK Randor AND we also got the 30th line of 6 Figures, a Weapons pack, an Extra Sorceress variant a more expensive SDCC figure (with two additional variants on sale on Matty) AND freaking Granamyr.31 items (counting Multipacks as 1 item. Vykron is being counted as a single item.)

OK, so 2013 had Castle Grayskull. It seems fair to sacrifice a few slots to make the castle affordable... What about 2014?
12 figures, 1 sub exclusive, 4 quarterlies, 1 mini sub with 7 figures, 2 extras (1 vehicle and 1 figure), 1 travel con item, 1 single SDCC figure and 1 "cheaper" chase figure.
29 items (counting Hordak + imp as a single item. Same with Kowl and Loo-Kee)
It's not that bad, but it IS a downsizing. 29 is not more than 31. Sure we have two lines that are NOT CLASSICS, therefore they are irrelevant. (Also, the minis tanked with their sub not reaching 50% and the giants... well, they've pegwarmed. We're in the final month and Jumbo Bea Arthur dressed as He-Man is still there.)

Oh yes! We have Castle Grayskull and the Battle Ram and an additional Sky Sled!
The Battle Ram that the Horsemen made ALL THE WAY BACK IN 2010... changing the head on the Sky Sled for the Battle Ram didn't require that much effort for them. So we got 1.5 vehicles out of a full vehicle sculpted by the Horsemen. Where is Roton? or Land Shark? If we are doing so well, then we should have gotten at least ONE of those for the Evil Warriors. (right now the heroes outnumber the villains with 2 to 0.5 vehicles)
Or Steeds like Stridor or Nightstalker?
Castle Grayskull is a different, but similar story. Yes, that was a titanic endeavor by the Horsemen. It looks awesome... Now, where is Snake Mountain? Why hasn't a preorder been made for it? Exactly!

If the line is doing well and Neitlich cooked the numbers, then why have people left? It can be seen on many toy blogs outside the big sites where the reviews of MOTUC toys have slowed down or stopped altogether. Heck! Some reviewers seem to be going through the motions with each MOTUC Review (Partially guilty of that, here.) Interest normally declines after a line enters a few years. There have been some Editorials since 2013 regarding MOTUC. Now I'll go off on a small tangent regarding another Mattel line: DCUC.

DCUC started as DCSH in 2006. It got rebranded as DCUC in 2008 then entered the Sub-Lines (GL, Batman, All-Stars) Then it became Club Infinite Earths until it died in 2014 (and many were sold for $6 on Mattycollector). It lasted roughly 8 years AFTER a few rebrandings and waning interest on the line. This is DC Comics, who has a massive MEDIA Juggernaut with DC/WB and the Toy Line failed after 8 years. The line was doing great, it had a nice retail presence, SUB-Lines and everything.

Now, looking at things from the other side of the coin and assuming that Neitlich was as truthful as possible, then the picture is closer to what happens with most toylines in reality. Let's look at the Toyline that most MOTU kids graduated to after the end of the original line:
Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles. (1988-1997)
It lasted 9 years and you could almost see the moment where Playmates stopped giving a damn and churned whatever they saw Plus turtle and made a toy. By 1994 we stopped having New Characters and the line became pretty much Turtles, Splinter, April, Shredder, and Rocksteady & Bebop variants.
By 1997 they had run out of ideas and they went with DINOSAUR TURTLE HYBRIDS!! (After the Cave Turtles from 1994)

Now, this may give ammunition to the Line Decline Deniers (LDDs) and say that TMNT was retail and MOTUC isn't. Or that 2.0s killed TMNT.

To that I say that they are PARTIALLY correct. While TMNT was a Retail Line and MOTUC is an Online only line, the real difference lies that at least TMNT tried to keep some basic looking version of the main characters available (until they stopped caring. Those birth-giving 1994 Turtles are the stuff of nightmares...) With MOTUC, you missed out on, say Teela: You're out of luck.

Which  brings me to my next point. 2016 is "Supposed to be something new that is not MOTUC".

Let's look at this scenario:
A New Customer discovered the 2016 line that is compatible with MOTUC but is not MOTUC in 2016. this new customer has never heard of MOTUC and visits Matty Collector in 2016 for the very first time to buy a Teela.

Select the choice that makes sense

a) He gets no Teela because he should have bought a Teela back in 2009 when she was released for a Previous line that ended in 2015.

b) He gets no Teela but has the option to buy an obscure mini comic character who appears in 3 frames of a mini comic (Guy in yellow Tug of War, whatever)

c) He gets no Teela and is told to pay $300+ for a 2009 Teela from a past toyline that ended in 2015 on ebay.

d) He gets no Teela this month, but finds out that Mattel will be releasing a Filmation Teela in 2 months on the Quarterly variant slot.

The LDDs believe that Mattel could last 1-2 more years by delivering only obscure mini comic characters, New Adventures characters, and Low tier Filmation characters. Yesterday's Cyber Monday Flash Sales are proof of the contrary.
The Filmation figures warmed pegs. Geldor, Karatti, Flogg, Hell! Even PoP A-Listers like Frosta and Castaspella pegwarmed during the flash sales. Meanwhile, Matty FINALLY sold all the He-Man reissues, Battle Armor Skeletor is almost gone. MAA, Hordak, Mantenna, Faker those guys sold out in a Flash!

Now here's the biggest question: If the line is supposedly doing a lot better than Neitlich stated; why did Mattel have to do a reshuffling? The infamous Change in the Road Map to deliver All the Vintage MOTU Figures and All the POP Figures by the end of 2015, remember that one?

If we're to believe Neitlich's statement that Mattel has to be planning the Following year during the sub drive for next year. (ie: during the 2013 sub period in 2012 they're supposed to be planning 2014)
So, in theory, Mattel was already thinking about the Roadmap Change all the way back in 2012. The year where the decline began. Supposedly from 2011 to 2012 we lost HALF the Customer base then a half of that half in 2013 then a bit more in 2014 and for the 2015 sub we "barely made it". If we "barely made it" to COMPLETE both MOTU and POP, then NA and Z-Listers have no chance in Hell.

Now adding a FEW variants of older figures close to their vanilla looks (filmation, mini comic, or 200X... Hell even a Vintage Toy Accurate MOTUC Compatible, He-Man in a Vintage Inspired Red and Blue Card would make more people bite.) COULD Help, but with a strong opposition is seems unlikely.

Now to tackle the Snout Spout in the room... The Sub. The former Band-Aid to the Red Screen of Death issues that Mattel turned into the main way to sell the line. THIS is the main reason why 2016 will fail. Without the glue that holds MOTUC together (which is MOTUV and to a certain extent, POP) the fandom can't rally over what they want in the line. Now there's no reason for anyone to "take one for the team" and buy 35 subs just so we can get Kayo, Melaktha, or the Tug-Of-war yellow clad dude. there's no "I'll take an Arrow just to get Tunglashor" situation.

There is one more thing left that I haven't touched upon. Costs. They keep going up and another reason why 2016 will fail.

Unless Mattel does something drastic, 2016 will fail.